joi, 29 octombrie 2009

Who serves up the results of smoking?

When American investors think the greatness of tobacco, Altria (NYSE: MO) and Philip Morris International "(NYSE: PM) are the first companies come to mind. But based on recent performance, British American Tobacco (NYSE: BTI) should definitely be in the of the mixture, after the interim management report of the company released on Wednesday.

In British American reporting on the results of nine months basis, we are somewhat comparing apples and oranges, especially since the company reported no profits or revenue numbers. But British American result, the volume is roughly in line with Philip Morris: a 2% increase in overall growth (including acquisitions), but 3% decline excluding acquisitions. Compare that with the general decline of Philip Morris International in the amount of 2,9% (4% reduction without acquisitions) in earnings release last week.

While Philip Morris has experienced 4.3% drop in volume for the flagship brand Marlboro, British American saw 4% of the total volume of profit for the four "Global Drive brands, which include:

9% growth in Pall Mall
5% growth for Lucky Strike
6% growth Dunhill
This British American apparently weathering the economic storm quite well.

More impressively, British American said that the company delivered revenue growth without currency considerations (although it does not specify whether it was organic or through acquisitions). For comparison, Philip Morris International reported a 5.3% decline in revenue for the quarter and 1.4% decline in operating income and earnings would have grown by 6,9% with no adverse currency fluctuations.

As global excise taxes on tobacco growing, cigarette manufacturers have their work cut out for them to protect profits, despite lower volume. For small-scale producers such as the Vector Group (NYSE: VGR) may be particularly at risk, as consumers decide how much they are willing to pay to smoke.

Inside Altria not fared much better, with a decrease in sales volumes and partly increase excise taxes, while Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI) also reported a 11% drop size. On the other hand, Lorillard (NYSE: LO) served up more than an average of 6,1% by volume decreases, even, as shown by 2,6% increase in operating income. British American Tobacco owns 42% shares of Reynolds American.

Although the tobacco market is not growing in the United States, however, consumers are not completely scared off increase in excise taxes. Similarly, the global tax increase is just beginning to unfold. And yet, these taxes can not kill the industry, global consumers are increasingly turning to gray or black market smoking as a result of increased excise taxes, leaving the growth prospects of premium products like Marlboro in some jeopardy.

Niciun comentariu: